Before last year, many believed that TCU had a good chance to win its first eight games, and would be fortunate to split the final four. While they accomplished the latter, they lost three of their first four post-Pachall Big 12 games and went 4-5 in conference. That wasn't terrible considering only OU and Kansas St finished better than 5-4. The 2013 conference slate moves Texas and Oklahoma earlier in TCU's schedule for Iowa State and Baylor in November.
2012 Stats (#, Big 12 rank, National rank)
Offensive PPG: 28, 8th, 68th
Rush Yards/game: 152, 8th, 66th
Pass Yards/game: 236, 7th, 62nd
Defensive PPG Allowed: 22.6, 2nd (KSU), 30th
Rush Yards/game Allowed: 105, 1st, 10th
Pass Yards/game Allowed: 218, 4th, 42nd
| 2012's Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year |
Offense: 7
Defense: 8
Key Offensive Departures: WR Josh Boyce (66 rec, 891 yds, 7 TD), WR Skye Dawson (34 rec, 455 yds, kick and punt returner) RB Matthew Tucker (531 yds, 6 TD), G Blaize Foltz (12 starts, 2nd Team Big 12), C James Fry (13 starts)
Key Defensive Departures: DL Stansly Maponga (1st Team Big 12), LB Kenny Cain (leading tackler, 2nd Team Big 12)
Key Offensive Returners: QB Casey Pachall (*), RB Waymon James (884 yds, 6 TD in 2011), RB Aaron Green (4.4 ypc at Nebraska in 2011), RB BJ Catalon (616 yds, 23 rec, 152 yds), WR Brandon Carter (36 rec, 590 yds, 6 TD), K Jaden Oberkrom (22/30 FG, 9/10 from 40-49 yds)
Key Defensive Returners: CB Jason Verrett (1st Team Big 12, 6 INT), DE Devonte Fields (1st Team Big 12, 10 sacks, 8.5 TFL, Pre-season 2nd Team AP All-America), DT Chucky Hunter (2nd Team Big 12), SS Sam Carter (2nd Team Big 12, 3 INT)
* In Pachall's four games in 2012, he was 66% passing with 10 TD, 1 INT, and 948 yards. Boykin was 57%, 2054 yards, 15 TD, 10 INT, but more importantly, and yes, opponents play a large factor here, Boykin was nearly three full yards behind Pachall in yards per attempt (9.77 to 7.03). For the record, Aaron Murray lead the nation with 10.1. Boykin was, however, the team's third leading rusher with 417 yards and 3 TD's.
Aug. 31st - LSU (actual Vegas line is -6) vs TCU at Cowboys Stadium
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| Frog's uni's for the Opener |
Returning starters Off/Def: 8 / 4
If you're going to knock off an SEC power, the best time to do it is the first game after they lose NINE guys to the NFL draft, including eight on defense and six in the first three rounds. The Tigers will still have to make a decision on suspending recently reinstated, barfighting, 14-year-old girl-raping RB Jeremy Hill (775 yds, 12 TD), while the Frogs will be without their suspended DE Devonte Fields. I've thought -4 has been more appropriate all along, and I'll stick with it. Of the Bayou Bengals' six conference wins last year, five were within seven points. I don't think LSU's young, untested defense will be able to contain a potential dual-threat Frog offense, and while their offense returns most, Mettenberger won't be able to move the ball consistently against a veteran defense.
Sept. 7th - Southeastern Louisiana at TCU (unofficial lines for this game)
Southeastern Louisiana 2012 record: 5-6, 5-2 in Southland Conference
Sept. 12th (Thursday) - TCU -4 at Texas Tech
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| Crushin' it |
The Raiders will have tried to get their shaky QB situation straightened out against SMU and Rice before hosting the Frogs on a raucous Thursday night at Jones Stadium on ESPN. With the Raiders losing QB Seth Doege (4205 yds, 70%, 39 TD, 16 INT) (not to mention 1st Team Big 12 LT LaAdrian Waddle), Sophomore Michael Brewer was slated to move from backup to starter before back problems kept him out of practice in August. If Brewer doesn't play, Tech is left to a pair of freshmen for at least the season opener, if not later. TCU will have to capitalize on their red zone chances against a sneaky stingy defense that finished 14th nationally against the pass in 2012. Unfortunately for the Frogs, mid-September may be too early in the season for Coach Bro to get suspended after pictures leak out of him slipping Vodka-cranberries to minors at the Blue Light before crawling out of a Pi Phi house window after hours.
Sept. 28th - SMU at TCU -17
SMU 2012 record: 7-6, 5-3 in C-USA
Returning starters Off/Def: 6 / 5
SMU never really took the leap forward like some had hoped for in 2012 with Longhorn transfer Garrett Gilbert running June Jones' offense, losing three games in a down conference, twice as favorites. While Gilbert (53%, 15 TD, 15 INT) returns, the Ponies lose 1st Team C-USA RB Zach Line (1278 yds, 13 TD, 33 rec, 229 yds), will have to improve a pass defense that ranked 112th, and will be banged up after having played at Texas A&M the week before.
Oct. 5th - TCU at Oklahoma -5
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| Belldozing |
Returning starters Off/Def: 7 / 4
The Sooners are coming off of one of the worst defensive years in the Bob Stoops era, giving up over 25 ppg, while fading late in the year. To make matters worse, they will be young on that side of the ball, losing leading tackler and 1st Team Big 12 FS Tony Jefferson, but do return 1st Teamer CB Aaron Colvin. While their top two backs Williams and Clay return, they lose their top two WR's and the program's all-time QB wins leader, Landry Jones. A week before the season opener Bob Stoops announced that redshirt freshman Trevor Knight would start the season as the Sooners QB over 6'6" 260 lb Junior Blake Bell (220 yds, 11 TD). The Sooners will host the Frogs after having made a trip to South Bend the week prior.
Oct. 12th - Kansas at TCU -21
Kansas 2012 record: 1-11, 0-9
Returning starters Off/Def: 5 / 4
Pachall passed for 24/30, 335 yds, and 2 TD last year, but the offense stalled with four fumbles. This year at home, they'll look to capitalize on a defense that gave up 36 ppg last year, ranked 116th in pass defense, and returns few. Defensively, the Frogs may be tested more than in 2012 with RB James Sims (1019 yds, 9 TD, 2nd Team Big 12), BYU transfer QB Jake Heaps, and an offense in the 2nd year of Charlie Weis' decided schematic advantage.
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| I see a pair of solid teams in Stillwater |
OK State 2012 record: 8-5, 5-4
Returning starters Off/Def: 8 / 7
The Big 12 writers picked the Cowboys as pre-season #1 despite ranking 113th against the pass last year and losing 1st Team Big 12 RB Joseph Randle (1457 yds, 14 TD), 1st Team Big 12 G Lane Taylor, and 1st Team Kicker and Punter Quinn Sharp from an offense that ranked third in the nation in scoring. They do return 1st Team DT Calvin Barnett, and a pair of QB's who threw for over 1500 yards, over 60%, over 13 TD's, and over 5 yards/rush EACH, Senior Clint Chelf and Sophomore JW Walsh. Ok State will enjoy a bye week before hosting the Frogs for the second year in a row at Boone Pickens Stadium, where they've lost only once in the last two years, winning by 28 ppg over that time against Big 12 teams.
Oct. 26th - Texas -4 at TCU
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| Ash or McCoy? Devonte doesn't care. |
Returning starters Off/Def: 10 / 9
Everyone loves to bash the Texas offense while readying their #fireMack tweets, but the Longhorns still scored over 35 ppg last year, and return the entire offensive line to block for a clown car of blue chip RB's. A defense that gave up over 29 ppg and 191 rush ypg, AND loses Big 12 1st Teamers DE Alex Okafor and S Kenny Vaccaro, will have to improve though, or Vegas' 9.5 season win total will seem pretty silly. After the Red River Rivalry, the Horns will have an off week before traveling back to the metroplex.
Nov. 2nd - West Virginia at TCU -12
WVU 2012 record: 7-6, 4-5
Returning starters Off/Def: 3 / 7
The Mountaineers could be the conference's biggest unknown coming into 2013. If Dana Holgorsen is the offensive mastermind some think he is, then maybe they could get to six wins. They'll have to do it without arguably 2012's best QB/WR trio in Smith, Austin, and Bailey, and most of the offensive line. Florida State transfer Junior QB Clint Trickett is the August favorite to win the starting job, and they'll feature a respectable running back tandem in Andrew Buie (914 yds, 7 TD) and Houston transfer Charles Sims (860 yds, 11 TD). Their defense will have to improve from their 117th ranking against the pass last year.
Nov. 9th - TCU -9 at Iowa State
Iowa St 2012 record: 6-7, 3-6
Returning starters Off/Def: 5 / 4
This year's Cyclone defense loses three conference 1st Teamers DL Jake McDonough, leading tackler LB AJ Klein, and LB Jake Knott. For the Frog's sake, the Iowa State defense that finished 2012 102nd against the pass hopefully won't get to face a quarterback with only a couple a days of preparation this year.
Nov. 16th - TCU at Kansas State -1
KSU 2012 record: 11-2, 8-1
Returning starters Off/Def: 8 / 2
For probably my most controverial line, it's tough to estimate just how much of a drop the Wildcats will take losing Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Collin Klein, 1st Team TE Travis Tannehill, 1st Team DE Meshak Williams, and leading tackler LB Authur Brown. They return 1st Team RB John Hubert, 1st Team LT Cornelius Lucas, and 1st Team SS Ty Zimmerman, and Bill Snyder's teams always play sound football, like finishing 3rd in the country in turnover margin and 7th in 3rd down conversions last year. Snyder loves his JUCO transfers too, and replacing Klein is potentially 2012's NJCAA Offensive Player of the Year Junior QB Jake Waters (3501 yds, 73.3%, 39 TD, 3 INT).
Nov 30th - Baylor at TCU -7
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| Let's all get behind the 2013 Frogs! |
Returning starters Off/Def: 5 / 7
In 2013, Baylor loses their school's season record holder for passing yards in QB Nick Florence (who also rushed for almost 700 yards), as well as 1st Team Big 12 WR Terrance Williams (97 rec, 1892 yds!). They will, however, return a First Team RG Cyril Richardson and the most productive RB tandem in the conference with Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, who combined for over 1900 yards and 22 TD's. Baylor will have to come up with a way to slow down Pachall though, as they finished second to last in the nation in 2012 in pass defense.
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