Breaking Down the TCU Frogs 2012 Schedule, Complete with Our Own Early Line Estimates

The gloomy events surrounding TCU's campus in early February seem quite innocent now, don't they? In the end, TCU lost four contributors from a 11-2, undefeated-MWC Champion team, and hope that its quarterback can keep his nose clean enough for at least a few more months. Taking a brief look at this year's Frogs:

• Throwing for an impressive 2921 / 25 / 7 while completing 66% in his first season as a starter, Casey Pachall led the nation's 9th best scoring offense as the NCAA's 12th-rated passer. He will have to help break in an O-line that lost 3 significant starters, but keeps his top 3 WR's in yds and TD's with Boyce, Dawson, and Carter.
• The Frogs had the rare feat of 3 RB's rush for over 700 yds last year. They return Waymon James and Matthew Tucker (18 rush TD's beween them), and lost the recently-released Dallas Cowboy, Ed Wesley.
• The Frogs defense had a bit of a down year in 2011, by their lofty standards, finishing 28th in scoring defense, 25th in rush defense, and 60th in pass defense. From that unit, they lost TWO-time MWC Defensive Player of the Year Tank Carder, as well as the majority of the secondary. They will bring back 1st Team All Conference DE Stanley Maponga and 2nd Team All Conference LB Kelly Cain, who led the team in tackles. The Frogs were actually in a nice position to replace Carder with 2010 leading tackler Tanner Brock, but the Fort Worth PD said otherwise.
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  Does the NFL have a limit on armbands?

  Special teams took a substantial hit, losing MWC Speacial Teams Player of the Year Greg McCoy, as well as the long-time kicker/punter combo of Ross Evans and Anson Kelton.

As of 8/22, Sportsbook.com has TCU down for 7.5 wins. The public likes the Frogs, as the over is only paying -170, with the under giving +140. One could even conceivably make the case that each game gets progressively harder throughout the entire season. If everyone stays healthy, and given each opponent's opening game rosters and outlooks, we can have some fun getting some early line estimates on the record. It should be noted that over the last four years, including bowls, TCU has only been an underdog FOUR times, while they could be dogs at least that many times this year alone.

Sept. 8th - Grambling St at TCU (-42)
The Frogs will debut a fancy, new $164 million renovated stadium against a Tigers team that went 8-4 in 2011, including a 35-7 loss to their only FBS opponent, Louisiana-Monroe.


Sept. 15 - TCU (-20) at Kansas
After going a horrendous 2-10 (0-9), where they ranked dead last in the country in scoring defense, the Jawhawks will host TCU's first ever Big 12 game by debuting new coach Charlie Weis, and most likely his former Notre Dame recruit and Irish transfer, QB Dayne Crist.

Sept. 22 - Virginia at TCU (-12)
Balancing out the '09 trip to Charlottesville, the Frogs will host a recently-improved Cavaliers team that finished 8-5 last year. The Wahoo's, and their ACC Coach of the Year Mike London, finished 2nd in the Coastal Division, going 5-3 in conference play, including a four-win stretch with road victories at Miami, Maryland, and Florida State. They return all skill players except their leading receiver.

Sept. 29 - TCU (-9) at SMU
The greatest rivalry in the South has some renewed passion for the Frogs after watching the Ponies break TCU's 22-game home win streak last year. Finishing the year 8-5 (5-3), SMU will come back to the Hilltop to defend the Iron Skillet with Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert behind an O-line with no returning starters, but gets the help of the nation's 7th best rusher in 2011, Zach Line. The Mustangs will be coming off a bye week, but following matchups against Baylor and Texas A&M.

Oct. 6 - Iowa State at TCU (-10)
In TCU's first Big 12 home game, the Frogs will face a feisty Cyclones team that finished only 6-7 (3-6), but recorded wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Iowa, and UConn. ISU gave up almost 30 ppg in 2011, and returns all skill position players except its leading receiver.

Oct. 13 - TCU (-5) at Baylor

Casey Pachall is ready for Big 12 play, are you?

Baylor had a lot to be proud of in 2011, finishing 10-3 (6-3) and handing the Frogs one of their two loses. However, in 2012 they lose a Heisman-trophy QB, Big 12 leading rusher Terrance Ganaway (116 ypg), and Big 12 leading receiver in yards Kendall Wright (128 ypg). They do return the Big 12's 5th and 7th leading receivers in yards, Terrance Williams and Tevin Price, respectively. Baylor returns most starters from a defense that gave up over 37 ppg and ranked 116th in total defense, which Casey Pachall will look to exploit like he did in their last matchup, but this time as a conference foe. The Bears will be coming off a bye week after traveling to Morgantown.

Oct. 20 - Texas Tech at TCU (-8)
The Frogs will host the Red Raiders for the first time since their 2006 12-3 barn-burner in Fort Worth. QB Seth Doege, 3rd in Big 12 in pass ypg in 2011, and the Raiders will look to improve on a 5-7 (2-7) 2011 season, where they finished 117th in scoring defense and saw only one notable win, albeit a big one in Norman. The Raiders will return 17 starters, including their best skill position players.

Oct. 27 - TCU (-1) at Oklahoma State
The reigning conference champs lost only at Iowa St in 2011, but lost QB Brandon Weeden, who was the 2nd rated passer in the Big 12 and led the conference in pass ypg, and Biletnikoff Award winner WR Justin Blackmon, who led the conference in receptions. The 'Pokes do return RB Justin Randle, who rushed for 1216 yd and 24 TD's, and will look to two unproven, phonetically-cautious QB's named Clint and Lunt. The Frog offense will look to feast on a defense that ranked 107th in total defense last year in what should finally be their first big-time test of the season.

Straight outta the casino, bourbon in hand

Nov. 3 - TCU (+6) at West Virginia
In his first year, Head Coach Dana Holgorson led the nation's 13th-ranked scoring offense to a 10-3 (5-2) record in 2011, including a throttling of ACC champ Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The Mountaineers will return most starters, including the Big East's leader in pass yards, QB Geno Smith (337 ypg), and a pair of 1000 yd receivers with Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin. Both teams could conceivably enter this game undefeated, which would certainly make it an ABC night game of two top five teams and Big Game Brent looking live over Morgantown.

Nov. 10 - Kansas State at TCU (-4)
The '11 Wildcats surprised many, going 10-3 (7-2). They return most, including QB Collin Klein, who threw for 1918 yds and 13 TD's while rushing for 1141 and 27 TD's. KSU may have to throw the ball around more than Klein is comfortable with if they want to keep up with the Frogs feasting on their 102nd ranked pass defense from 2011.

Nov. 24 - TCU (+4) at Texas
Texas surely will turn it around eventually, right? They did have a three-win improvement in 2011 from 2010, going 8-5, but only 4-5 in conference play. Their defense, ranked 7th in rush defense, kept them in many games when their offense was often anemic. While they suffer some losses on defense, their deep stable of running backs should help out any more questionable quarterback play. Texas will be coming off of a bye week to host the Frogs in what may be a post-Cowboys, Thanksgiving night feast.

Hopefully it won't be too cold in early December

Dec. 1 - Oklahoma at TCU (+8)
While Oklahoma won ten games last year, some had them preseason #1, and losing three games doesn't cut it in Norman. 2011's 5th ranked team in total offense returns  14 starters, including QB Landry Jones, who was 2nd in the conference in pass ypg, but loses the NCAA all-time career receptions leader, Ryan Broyles. The Sooners seemed to struggle to move the ball at times after Broyles was injured late in the year, and their defense gave up more than 41 points three times in their last six games. If Oklahoma is vulnerable, it's away from Norman, where they've lost eight games over the last three years.